The New York Islanders find themselves at a crucial juncture this offseason. Fresh off a disappointing season that saw them miss the playoffs, and with a new general manager at the helm in Mathieu Darche, the team faces a pivotal decision: should they aggressively buy to contend now, or begin a roster retooling with an eye toward the future after the 2025 NHL Draft?
The Islanders won the draft lottery and hold the first overall pick, a fortunate turn of events that presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Most projections indicate they will select Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, considered by many to be the consensus best player available. Schaefer is lauded for his all-around game and projects as a future top-pairing defenseman. While holding onto the pick and selecting Schaefer seems like the safest route, some argue that the Islanders should explore trading the pick for a massive return. However, moving the first-overall pick could backfire and alienate the fanbase.
Adding to the intrigue, the Islanders are reportedly exploring acquiring another top-10 pick. Several reports suggest they are willing to part with significant assets to achieve this goal. Names like Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau have surfaced in trade discussions. Dobson, in particular, would command a substantial return, given his age, offensive capabilities, and right-handed shot – a coveted asset in the NHL. A potential trade involving Dobson could bring in a package of draft picks, prospects, and/or young NHL players, accelerating a potential retooling process. There are rumors of a potential trade between the Sabres and Islanders of Dobson for Peterka.
However, trading Dobson would also create a significant hole on the Islanders' blue line. He has emerged as one of their most dependable defensemen, logging significant minutes and contributing offensively. Losing his presence would necessitate finding a suitable replacement, either through free agency or further trades.
Alternatively, the Islanders could opt to be buyers, using their existing cap space and assets to add scoring and address other needs. They have approximately $22.7 million in cap space and could create more by trading players like Pageau and Scott Mayfield. One potential target in free agency is Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers is a proven offensive contributor who could provide a much-needed boost to the Islanders' forward group.
Several factors will influence the Islanders' ultimate decision. The health of key players, such as Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal, is a crucial consideration. Their ability to return to full strength will impact the team's competitiveness next season. The performance of their goaltending tandem, Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, is another key factor. Sorokin is signed to a long-term deal and is expected to be the team's franchise goaltender, but Varlamov's future is less certain. The team also needs to make decisions on restricted free agents Noah Dobson, Alex Romanov, and Simon Holmstrom.
Ultimately, the Islanders' path forward will depend on new GM Mathieu Darche's vision for the team. He must carefully evaluate the current roster, assess the team's long-term needs, and weigh the risks and rewards of each option. Whether they choose to buy or retool, the Islanders' decisions this offseason will have a significant impact on the team's future.
