The Federal Reserve implemented a widely anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. However, the decision was not unanimous, with three members dissenting, signaling internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This conflicted outlook, coupled with the Fed's indication that further easing is not guaranteed, has contributed to a cautious sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin's price is currently hovering around $92,000, showing a modest increase of 1.9%. Despite this slight uptick, BTC remains down for the week and has struggled to break free from its "fragile range". The cryptocurrency briefly spiked above $93,000 following the Fed's announcement but has since retreated, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its immediate trajectory.
Several factors are contributing to Bitcoin's inability to surge past the $100,000 mark. One key element is the "hawkish cut" scenario, where the Fed reduces rates but signals a slower pace of easing in 2026 due to persistent inflation or a resilient job market. This could strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase Treasury yields, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin faces significant resistance at $92,000, with a descending trendline capping rallies since mid-November. Support levels are holding at $88,000-$90,000, but a break below this range could trigger a deeper pullback. Should Bitcoin close above $93,700, it could signal a bullish trend, potentially driving the price towards $94,600, then $97,000–$98,000, and possibly reigniting the push toward $100,000.
Market sentiment also plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's price predictions. The crypto fear and greed index has been fluctuating between "fear" and "extreme fear" for the past two months, reflecting investor anxiety. This cautious sentiment is further fueled by historical data, which shows that Bitcoin's price has often declined after previous rate cuts.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price prediction for 2026 varies across different sources. Some forecasts estimate a price of around $93,266, while others project a higher value of $96,827.18. These predictions are influenced by factors such as increasing institutional adoption, ongoing ETF demand, and broader macroeconomic trends.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin can overcome its current challenges and break above $100,000 depends on a confluence of factors, including the Fed's future policy decisions, market sentiment, and the continued development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
