Is India quietly isolating Yunus–Jamaat axis in Bangladesh? Signals point to diplomatic moves
Recent developments suggest a shift in India's approach towards Bangladesh, potentially signaling a move to isolate the Yunus-Jamaat axis that has gained prominence in the country's political landscape. This comes after a period of strained relations following the ouster of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, and the rise of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus.
A Thawing of Relations with the BNP?
One of the most significant indicators of this shift is the renewed engagement with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Visits and condolence messages from senior Indian leaders following the death of Khaleda Zia, former Prime Minister and BNP Chairperson, highlight a sudden warming of Dhaka-Delhi ties. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh paid his respects at the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, recalling Zia's role in strengthening relations between the two countries. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also visited Bangladesh to pay respects and met with senior officials of the interim government and top leaders of the BNP.
This outreach is particularly noteworthy considering the historical context. The BNP, previously known for its alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami and a perceived anti-India stance, is now signaling a desire for improved relations with India. This shift is partly driven by the BNP's need for India's support to ensure peace along the 4,000 km Bangladesh-India border and to facilitate trade. Some reports suggest that the BNP is interested in keeping the radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami at bay to rebuild frayed ties with India.
Concerns Over the Yunus-Jamaat Alliance
India's concerns stem from the growing influence of Jamaat-e-Islami within the Yunus-led interim government. The Jamaat, which was banned by the Awami League government over terror activities, has made its way back into legitimate politics under the interim government. The organization's pro-Pakistan stance and anti-India sentiment are matters of great concern for India.
Muhammad Yunus has also faced criticism for his alleged role in strengthening these forces. He has been accused of promoting anti-India sentiments and has criticized India for providing shelter to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Yunus has also dismissed reports of communal violence against Hindus in Bangladesh as "fake news" floated by India.
India's Strategic Calculations
India's engagement with Bangladesh is guided by several strategic considerations. Bangladesh is a central pillar of India's foreign policy, acting as the convergence point for the "Neighborhood First" policy and the "Act East" policy. The country provides strategic connectivity to India's Northeast, access to ports, and acts as a gateway to Southeast Asia. Bangladesh is also India's largest trade partner in South Asia.
However, the rise of radical elements and growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh pose a threat to regional stability and India's security interests. India also worries about the growing relations between Bangladesh and China and Pakistan. To address these challenges, India appears to be recalibrating its approach by engaging with all stakeholders in Bangladesh, including the BNP.
Challenges and Opportunities
The evolving situation in Bangladesh presents both challenges and opportunities for India. It is crucial for India to navigate the complex political landscape and build relationships with various political actors to ensure its strategic interests are protected. By signaling a willingness to engage with the BNP and potentially distancing itself from the Yunus-Jamaat axis, India may be aiming to create a more stable and favorable environment for bilateral relations.
The coming months will be critical in determining the future trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations. With Bangladesh's national elections scheduled for February 12, 2026, India will be closely monitoring the situation and adjusting its approach accordingly.
