India is outpacing China in electrification while utilizing significantly fewer fossil fuels per capita, according to a new analysis. This shift is largely attributed to India's strategic adoption of affordable green technologies, particularly solar power, and a lighter, more service-oriented economy.

The report highlights that when adjusted for purchasing power parity, India's current GDP per capita of $11,000 matches China's level in 2012. However, India's consumption of coal and oil per person is significantly lower than China's at that time. This advantage stems from timing, as India benefits from the decreased costs of solar panels and electric vehicles, technologies that China helped to make affordable.

In 2024, electric vehicles accounted for 5% of new car sales in India, and the per-capita consumption of oil for road transport is 60% lower than China's level at the same EV adoption milestone. Experts suggest that India's peak oil consumption per person will likely never reach China's levels, marking a significant departure from traditional development pathways.

Ember's analysis posits that countries lacking domestic fossil fuel reserves, such as India, will become "electrostates," meeting most of their energy needs through clean electricity. The economic incentives are strong, as India spends $150 billion annually on fossil fuel imports, creating a compelling reason to pursue energy independence through electrification.

India is harnessing some of the cheapest solar power in the world to fuel its industrial growth, thereby avoiding an expensive and insecure reliance on fossil fuels. This offers a faster and more economical route to expanding electricity access, enhancing energy sovereignty early in its development. India generates a third more economic output per unit of energy than China today. Unlike China's development which was heavy and construction-driven, India's economy is lighter and more services-led.

China has been a leader in electrification, increasing its electricity share of final energy by nearly ten percentage points per decade since 1990. However, India is generating more solar electricity, burning far fewer fossil fuels and electrifying transport faster than China did at an equivalent GDP per capita. Renewables are now the leading replacement for coal demand in China, with growth in solar and wind generation largely keeping emissions growth from China's power sector flat. The share of renewables in China's power capacity stood at 55% in 2024, compared with gas at around 4%.

Despite these promising trends, challenges remain for India. Chinese companies dominate the production of both electricity technologies and the equipment required for their domestic manufacture. For example, Reliance Industries recently paused battery cell production plans because they couldn't secure the necessary Chinese equipment. However, as Western nations increasingly exclude Chinese-linked technologies, countries like India have growing incentives to develop independent manufacturing capabilities.

This transition can position India as a significant player in a world where energy is being reshaped by electrotech and impacted by Sino-American competition. While these advantages are not guaranteed, the indicators are encouraging.