A significant $10.8 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire this week, prompting speculation about whether bulls will drive the price toward $95,000 afterward. This expiry event could trigger increased trading activity and heightened volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Potential Market Impact

As these options expire, traders anticipate potential price adjustments, with Bitcoin possibly facing resistance in the $89,500 to $91,000 range. Market observers suggest such financial events can influence market liquidity and price patterns. Historically, options expirations have often led to increased trading volumes.

Deribit holds a substantial portion of the open interest for these options, with Bitcoin's notional value nearing $1.94 billion. The expiry may push prices toward "max pain" levels due to market maker activities, impacting the trading prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. "Max pain" refers to the price at which the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.

Technical Analysis and Price Predictions

Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is approaching a crucial turning point. The combination of lower volatility, the end of options contracts, and oversold conditions could lead to rapid price movements in either direction. If the gamma unwind on January 30 coincides with positive earnings reports from companies, Bitcoin might quickly rebound to $93,000 and potentially test $100,000. A decisive break above $93,000 could trigger short covering and increased institutional interest.

However, a bearish scenario could unfold if stablecoins continue to exit the market and professional traders maintain their risk-off stance. In this case, Bitcoin might fall back to the $83,000-$85,000 support zone. If gold continues to attract safe-haven flows at Bitcoin's expense, the cryptocurrency may struggle to gain momentum even after the options expire.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000, and faces a technical squeeze. If Bitcoin breaks and closes above $87,787 on a daily basis, it could extend its recovery toward $90,000. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum. For the recovery to be sustained, the RSI must move above 50. Traders should also be aware that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover last week, suggesting a potential downward move.

Historical Context

One analysis of past Bitcoin options expirations between 2018 and 2021 concluded that options expiry has no influence on subsequent price movements.

Other Factors to Consider

Bitcoin's performance in early 2026 has shown a contrast between weekday gains and weekend losses. According to NS3.AI, Bitcoin has risen by 3.21% during weekdays but has declined by 3.17% over weekends. To regain its status as a macro hedge, Bitcoin needs to maintain its value over weekends and attract consistent institutional investments, particularly through ETF demand. Year-to-date inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached a record $10.8 billion, demonstrating growing confidence in digital assets.