In the wake of escalating tensions and the declared abeyance of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), India is aggressively pursuing the development of hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River. This move signifies a major shift in India's water strategy and has sparked concerns in Pakistan, which heavily relies on the Chenab as a primary water source.
IWT in Abeyance
In April 2025, India declared the Indus Waters Treaty to be in "abeyance" following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which resulted in the death of 26 tourists. India blamed cross-border militants for the attack. The term "abeyance" is not explicitly defined in the treaty, nor is it recognized under international law. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. India is allowed limited non-consumptive use of the western rivers.
India's decision to effectively suspend the treaty is viewed as a means of asserting leverage over Pakistan, particularly in the context of ongoing concerns about cross-border terrorism. Some analysts suggest that India is using law as a tool for strategic pressure, without formally breaching international commitments. However, this stance has raised alarms among regional observers who fear that it could undermine the sanctity of international agreements.
Mega Chenab Hydel Projects
Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the IWT, India is fast-tracking the development of several major hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River. A key project is the Rs 5,129 crore Sawalkot Hydroelectric Project in the Ramban district. The state-owned NHPC has floated tenders for the project, with the aim of maximizing India's water utilization under the IWT. The Sawalkote project is a run-of-the-river project that will include a 192.5-metre-high dam and an underground powerhouse. The project is planned to be developed in two stages, and could take nine years to complete.
In addition to the Sawalkote project, the Indian government has directed officials to expedite the completion of other hydropower projects on the Chenab, including the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle projects. The Pakal Dul project is particularly significant as it is the largest project in the Chenab basin and India's first storage project on a western river flowing into Pakistan. Once commissioned, the Pakal Dul project will give India the ability to regulate the timing of water flow, a capability that has raised concerns in Pakistan.
Implications and Concerns
Pakistan has expressed serious concerns about India's actions, viewing them as a deliberate "weaponization of water". The Chenab River is a crucial water source for Pakistan, supplying water for 90% of the country's agriculture. There are reports that about 9 out of 10 Pakistanis rely on water that first flows through Indian territory. India's increased control over the river's flow, coupled with the construction of large dams, could give it significant leverage over Pakistan.
The situation is further complicated by the legal ambiguity surrounding India's decision to put the IWT in abeyance. The treaty lacks a unilateral exit or suspension clause, and Article 12 stipulates that any modification must occur through mutual agreement.
The fast-tracking of hydel projects and the suspension of the IWT have the potential to further strain the already tense relationship between India and Pakistan. Some fear that retaliatory "hydropolitics" in the region could have catastrophic consequences, especially given the existing ecological vulnerabilities and food insecurity.