Here's a breakdown of the key factors influencing the Indian stock market overnight:

1. GIFT Nifty Trends

• GIFT Nifty (formerly SGX Nifty) is a derivative contract linked to India's Nifty 50 index. It was originally traded on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), but has been relocated to the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in Gandhinagar, India.
• It serves as an early indicator for the Indian market. Trends on GIFT Nifty often point to how the Indian benchmark index might open.
• Hedge funds and institutional investors use GIFT Nifty as a tool to hedge their exposure to the Indian stock market.
• On September 24, 2025, GIFT Nifty indicated a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. It was trading around 25177, a discount from the Nifty futures' previous close. Some reports showed GIFT Nifty started weakly at 25,212, a 0.12% slip in early trade.

2. H-1B Visa Rule Changes

• The US government, under President Trump, announced a significant change to the H-1B visa program, increasing the fee for new applications up to US$100,000. This is a substantial rise from the previous range of US$2,000 to US$5,000.
• The White House clarified that the increased fee applies only to new applicants and not to existing visa holders or renewals. This clarification initially calmed nerves in the Indian IT sector.
• Indian tech companies are likely to reduce their reliance on H-1B visas by increasing local hiring in the US. Nasscom anticipates only a marginal impact on the sector, as companies are investing in upskilling programs in the US.
• The number of H-1B visas secured by Indian tech firms has already been declining.
• The H-1B visa changes do not affect Indian tourists applying for tourist visas.

3. Jerome Powell's Speech and US Economic Outlook

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the economic outlook of the United States.
• Powell warned of inflation risks if interest rates are cut "too aggressively". He characterized the economic situation as "challenging," with risks to inflation tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside.
• Powell said that the US economy is showing resilience amidst changes in trade and immigration policies. However, he noted that the full impact of these policies will take time to emerge.
• The Fed Chairman noted that retailers and importers are not passing along the impact of tariffs to consumers, so the inflation rate has been moderate.
• Powell's remarks about challenging rate decisions and stock valuations contributed to US stocks closing lower after recent record highs.

4. Impact on Indian IT Sector

• The increase in H-1B visa fees has rattled India's tech industry.
• Share prices of Indian tech companies with significant exposure to the US market, such as Tech Mahindra, TCS, and Infosys, fell due to visa concerns.
• India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the H-1B changes are likely to have humanitarian consequences and hoped the US authorities would address disruptions caused to families.
• Indian officials are expected to request the US to ease access for skilled workers during trade negotiations.

5. Global Market Cues

• Asian markets opened lower following losses in the US equity markets.
• US stocks slipped, with major indexes closing lower.
• Concerns regarding US visa fee hikes and trade tensions have contributed to the Indian rupee hitting a record low.