The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections on January 15, 2026, are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Uddhav Thackeray and his Shiv Sena (UBT). Following the split in the Shiv Sena in June-July 2022, these elections mark a crucial test for Thackeray's leadership and the party's future in Mumbai's political landscape.

For decades, the undivided Shiv Sena held sway over the BMC, controlling it for nearly a quarter of a century. The upcoming elections are not just about civic governance; they are about the very survival and relevance of the Thackeray legacy in Mumbai. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, Uddhav Thackeray has joined forces with his cousin, Raj Thackeray, and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). This alliance, a reunion after 20 years, is a strategic move to consolidate their support base and counter the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance.

The central theme of the Thackeray alliance's campaign revolves around protecting Marathi identity and மும்பை अस्मिता. They accuse the BJP of attempting to undermine Mumbai's cultural roots and separate the city from Maharashtra. Uddhav and Raj have framed the elections as a decisive battle for the "Marathi manoos," warning against the imposition of Hindi and the growing influence of Gujaratis in the city. They have evoked the Samyukta Maharashtra movement, reminding voters of the sacrifices made to include Mumbai in Maharashtra.

The BJP, however, has dismissed these claims as divisive rhetoric. They assert their commitment to Mumbai's development and inclusivity, countering the narrative that they are a threat to Marathi identity. The BJP aims to showcase its governance record and development initiatives to win over voters.

Several surveys offer diverging predictions. One survey indicates a potential victory for the Mahayuti alliance, while another suggests a strong position for the Thackeray alliance. These conflicting predictions highlight the uncertainty and high stakes of the election. The surveys also suggest that while the Thackeray name still holds significant weight in Maharashtra politics, opinions are divided on who the true heir to the Shiv Sena legacy is.

Adding to the election's intensity, Sanjay Raut, a close aide of Uddhav Thackeray, announced that Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS have formed joint "squads" to prevent dual voting on election day. This move underscores the concerns about electoral malpractices and the determination of both parties to ensure a fair outcome. Meanwhile, a Shiv Sena spokesperson has approached the Bombay High Court, challenging the nomination of former Mumbai Mayor Kishori Pednekar (Shiv Sena UBT) for allegedly concealing information about FIRs against her.

As the BMC elections approach, the stakes are high for Uddhav Thackeray and the Shiv Sena (UBT). The election's outcome will not only determine the control of Mumbai's civic administration but also shape the future of the Thackeray family's political legacy. The challenges are formidable, but the alliance with Raj Thackeray and the focus on Marathi identity represent a determined effort to reclaim their position in Mumbai's political arena.