Mexico is reportedly weighing whether to halt or reduce its oil shipments to Cuba, spurred by fears of potential retaliation from the United States under President Donald Trump. This internal review within President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration comes as the U.S. considers more aggressive measures to pressure regime change in Cuba.
The potential shift in Mexico's policy stems from increasing pressure from the Trump administration, which is considering a total blockade on oil imports to Cuba. Some officials within the U.S. government are resisting this measure, while others, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, support it. A total blockade could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Cuba, which is facing its worst crisis in nearly 70 years.
The situation has been further complicated by the cessation of Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, due to the immobilization of oil tankers in December and the capture of Nicolas Maduro. This has made Mexico Cuba's primary fuel supplier, a role that has drawn increased scrutiny from Washington. Trump has publicly stated his stance, declaring on social media on January 11th that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!".
President Sheinbaum has publicly defended Mexico's oil shipments to Cuba as humanitarian aid and part of long-term contracts. However, concerns are growing within her cabinet about the potential political cost of maintaining this stance. Some officials fear antagonizing the U.S., especially with the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement.
Adding to the tension, there has been an increase in U.S. Navy drone activity over the Gulf of Mexico, specifically Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones. These drones have been observed flying routes similar to those used by tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba. This has been interpreted by some Mexican officials as a clear message from the U.S..
During a recent phone call between Trump and Sheinbaum, the U.S. president reportedly inquired about Mexico's oil shipments and the presence of Cuban doctors in Mexico. While Trump did not explicitly demand a suspension of oil shipments, he made his displeasure clear. Sheinbaum has insisted that the oil deliveries are humanitarian and the medical program is legal.
Republican lawmakers in the U.S. have also warned Sheinbaum of potential consequences if Mexico continues to support the Cuban regime. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar stated that Mexico's "appeasement of the Cuban regime will be taken into account when renegotiating the USMCA". Representative Carlos Gimenez echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the USMCA negotiations are "the only mechanism we have to modify the Mexican government's actions".
With the U.S. potentially enacting a total blockade on Cuba, Mexico faces a difficult decision. According to Kpler, an energy advisory firm, Mexican crude accounted for 44% of Cuba's oil imports last year. The options being considered by the Mexican government include a complete halt to oil shipments, a partial reduction, or maintaining the current levels. The decision will likely hinge on balancing Mexico's long-standing policy of non-intervention and solidarity with Cuba against the risk of economic and political retaliation from the United States.
