India's exports to China have experienced a significant surge, with an increase of 37% to $14.2 billion during the period of April-December, according to a statement made by a government official in Rajya Sabha on Friday. This growth signifies a positive shift in the bilateral trade relationship between the two countries.
The jump in exports to China comes at a time when US-Indian ties are fraying. In August 2025, President Donald Trump imposed steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty for India's purchases of Russian oil.
The increase in exports was driven by several products, such as oil meals, marine products, telecom instruments, and spices. In December alone, India's exports to China jumped 67.35% to $2.04 billion due to an increase in shipments of various products like electronics and marine products, according to Commerce Ministry data. Imports from China also rose by 20% to $11.7 billion during the month under review.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal stated that the export growth is a welcome development and that the overall recalibration of supply chains across the world is helping India boost its exports to China.
However, experts have expressed concern regarding China's ballooning trade surplus with India. During April-December of the current fiscal year, imports increased 13.46% to $95.95 billion. The trade deficit stood at $81.71 billion.
A December 2025 report by the New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) indicated that the surge in India's exports to China is driven by a narrow set of products. Naphtha is the biggest contributor, with exports in the April-October period up 172% from a year earlier to $1.4 billion, reflecting strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks. Electronics also showed "unusually sharp spikes" with printed circuit board exports jumping over 2,000% to $418 million in the first seven months of the ongoing financial year, the report said.
Despite concerns about the trade deficit, the increase in exports to China signals a structural shift in the bilateral trade relationship, with China gradually emerging as a major export destination for India. In comparison to previous years, exports during April-November 2024-25 were at $9.2 billion, $9.89 billion in Apr-Nov 2022-23, and $10.28 billion in 2023-24. The sharp jump to $12.22 billion in 2025-26 not only reverses last year's decline but also marks the highest level in the past four years.