Bitcoin's recent price movements have sparked debate among industry experts, with some questioning the market dynamics at play. Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, a Bitcoin adoption-focused company, has been particularly vocal about what he believes is weighing on the cryptocurrency.
Mow has pointed out the seemingly "manufactured" nature of Bitcoin's price action, observing that it often peaks and then plateaus, moving sideways within a tight range. This behavior, according to Mow, suggests a potential price suppression, preventing Bitcoin from experiencing more organic growth. Despite this stagnation, Mow remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
Adding to the discussion, Mow commented on the current market downturn, stating that it "feels terrible" due to its perceived unfairness. He noted that while other asset classes are experiencing gains, crypto is stagnating or even declining, influenced by concerns related to an AI bubble and fluctuations in gold prices. However, Mow emphasized Bitcoin's "absolute scarcity" as a fundamental strength, arguing that prices cannot fall indefinitely.
Looking ahead, Mow has set a long-term price target of $1 million for Bitcoin, estimating it could reach this milestone between 2031 and 2033. He anticipates Bitcoin adding roughly $150,000 to its price annually in the years leading up to this period. While some years may see "Omega candles" (significant price surges), others might involve sideways trading, providing accumulation opportunities for investors. Other industry experts share similar sentiments regarding Bitcoin's potential, with some projecting even earlier timelines for it to reach $1 million.
Mow has also highlighted key catalysts that could propel Bitcoin's price upward, including the approval of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the upcoming halving event, increased adoption by nations, and potential renewed quantitative easing policies. He believes these factors, combined with multiplier and Veblen effects, are not yet fully reflected in Bitcoin's current market value. He also maintains that Bitcoin is still on track for $1 million in 2026, citing potential nation-state adoption as a key driver.
However, it's important to note that Mow's predictions are not without skeptics. Some analysts point to Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq, suggesting that weakness in tech stocks could negatively impact its price. Others argue that a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2026 is unrealistic, requiring a "total global regime shift" that is not yet evident. Some analysts predict Bitcoin could test $50,000 if economic conditions worsen.
Despite the differing opinions, the core of Mow's argument rests on Bitcoin's fundamental properties, particularly its scarcity and potential for wider adoption. He believes that as more institutions and nations recognize Bitcoin's value proposition, its price will inevitably reflect its true potential.