Bitcoin is showing resilience in the face of recent market turbulence, including a significant drop below its 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator. This decline arrives after a period of high volatility, prompting comparisons to previous market downturns such as the COVID-19 crash of 2020 and the collapse of FTX.

Recently, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $60,000 before climbing back above $68,000. However, the price is almost 25% below the 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which sits around $99,000. The drop below the 200-day moving average happened around August 3, 2024. This correction of 40% from its peak at $126,000 could be described as a technical bear market. If history serves as a guide, Bitcoin could trade in the $50,000 - $60,000 range in the latter half of the year.

Several factors contribute to Bitcoin's current market position. There's been a broader tech selloff impacting cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin losing nearly 50% of its value since its October peak. Investor concerns also revolve around large technology companies and their investments in AI, and the potential impact on software companies.

Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that a rally back up to the 200-day moving average is possible. However, the 200-day moving average is a lagging indicator and should be interpreted carefully. The current market flows are reminiscent of the tech and crypto meltdown in November 2021.

It is important to note that short-term investors are experiencing losses, with an average purchase price near USD 90,000. There is a chance that the downward trend will continue, potentially pushing BTC towards key on-chain support levels near USD 50,000.