The political landscape of West Bengal is heating up as the 2026 state elections approach, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) seemingly adopting a clear strategy: a direct battle with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leaving little room for the Indian National Congress. This strategic direction appears to be influenced by the recent Bihar election results, where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a significant victory.
Bihar's Echoes in Bengal
The BJP is emboldened by its Bihar win, with party leaders expressing confidence in replicating their success in West Bengal. Union Minister Giriraj Singh proclaimed, "Bihar ki jeet hamari hai, agli bari Bengal ki hai," signaling the BJP's intent to target West Bengal next. BJP leaders have started to use the Bihar victory as momentum for the upcoming West Bengal Assembly polls. Some BJP leaders are already calling for a "clean" voter list in West Bengal, which may allude to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). The BJP is hoping to build on its performance from the 2021 elections, where it won 77 out of 294 seats.
The TMC, however, dismisses any notion that the Bihar results will impact West Bengal's political dynamics. TMC leaders assert that the political equations in both states are fundamentally different, and that Mamata Banerjee's leadership and the TMC's developmental work will secure a fourth term in 2026. TMC spokesperson Kunal Ghosh stated that the Bihar poll results also showed that the Congress failed in its opposition to the BJP. The TMC insists that Mamata Banerjee will secure a fourth term in 2026, citing distinct political dynamics from Bihar.
TMC's Stance Towards Congress
Mamata Banerjee has made it clear that the Congress is too weak to offer any value in an alliance. The TMC has, in effect, shut the door on any alliance with the Congress in West Bengal for the Lok Sabha election. The party has expressed frustration with seat-sharing talks, where it offered two seats to the Congress, which demanded six. This is not a new development, as tensions between the TMC and Congress have been evident for some time. In early 2024, Mamata Banerjee stated that the TMC would fight alone in West Bengal. Some TMC leaders have even gone so far as to say that the Congress is acting as the "B-team" for the BJP.
However, despite the public disagreements, there have been instances of cooperation between the TMC and Congress at the national level. During the monsoon session, the TMC secured Congress support for its protest over disrespect to the Bangla language. There have also been reports of a thaw in relations between the TMC and Congress, with leaders from both parties engaging in discussions. Some analysts believe that a united opposition is critical to challenging the BJP, and that the TMC and Congress need to find a way to work together.
The Road Ahead
The primary battle in West Bengal is expected to be between the TMC and the BJP. The BJP is trying to appropriate Bengali icons to keep their mass appeal intact. The TMC is focusing on development, unity, harmony, rights, and self-respect. The TMC has accused the BJP of insulting Bengal by blocking central welfare funds, questioning the Bengali language, and making derogatory comments about Bengali women.
The role of other political forces, such as the Left Front and the Congress, remains uncertain. While they currently have minimal representation in the Assembly, some believe they could still play a role in splitting the opposition vote. A crucial overlapping constituency between TMC and Congress is the large minority populace in Bengal, which would present a serious conundrum for Congress.
As West Bengal gears up for the 2026 elections, the political climate is likely to remain charged. The TMC seems set on a direct confrontation with the BJP, while the Congress faces an uphill battle to remain relevant in the state's political landscape. The outcome of this battle will have significant implications for the future of West Bengal and Indian politics.
